美國住房市場與宏觀經濟動態
2025年 六月
橋塔自成立以來,一直秉持冷靜、專注、高效的經營態度,無論整體市場環境如何變化,都不曾動搖。我們認為市場波動常帶來新的機會,而我們始終以長遠的眼光和穩健的行動來把握這些機會。
宏觀經濟的多重動向
2025年初,全球宏觀經濟出現明顯變化。歐洲央行(ECB)在經濟疲弱加劇的情況下將利率下調至2.25%,而美國聯準會(Fed)則儘管面對經濟放緩的跡象,仍選擇按兵不動。鮑威爾主席對降息的保守態度,被市場視為反應較慢,也因此提高了年內可能更頻繁降息的可能性。我們原先預期2025年會有四次降息,這一看法曾被視為激進,如今卻與市場主流預測趨於一致。另一方面,由於對沖基金與銀行的整體去槓桿操作,長端美債殖利率出現上升,市場也開始猜測聯準會可能會以「穩定殖利率曲線」為名,重新啟動量化寬鬆(QE)政策,這也可能進一步壓低美元走勢。
儘管「去美元化」的聲音不斷出現,我們認為市場對此的擔憂有些過度。目前,並沒有可信的替代貨幣能取代美元作為全球儲備貨幣。例如,若人民幣要被大規模採用,中國勢必得開放資本帳戶,這在現階段不僅不太可能,也存在極高風險。在這樣的背景下,若貿易緊張局勢未獲得改善,我們認為美國在未來12個月內出現經濟衰退的機率超過60%。若衰退出現在下半年,我們預期失業率將小幅上升(約2至3個百分點),接著聯準會將可能轉向寬鬆政策。從歷史經驗來看,這類情況下——利率下調、美元走弱與美債殖利率走低——往往為住宅房地產投資人創造出極具吸引力的長期進場機會。
當前,央行政策走向分歧,加上地緣政治緊張升溫,市場預期正以超出決策者反應速度的節奏快速改變。在這樣的環境下,對於有紀律的資本配置者而言,儘管面臨逆風,也同時浮現出精選機會。橋塔自成立以來,一直秉持冷靜、專注、高效的經營態度,無論整體市場環境如何變化,都不曾動搖。我們認為市場波動常帶來新的機會,而我們始終以長遠的眼光和穩健的行動來把握這些機會。
住房與資本市場
目前超過八成的美國房貸利率鎖定在6%以下,即便房價略有走弱,轉售市場的供給仍然受限。這種所謂的「鎖定效應」使得自有屋主不願出售房產,進一步推升了對自建租賃(Build-to-Rent “BTR”)與獨棟租賃(Single-Family Rental “SFR”)產品的需求。另一方面,美元兌其他主要貨幣的匯率約每年10%的降幅,將吸引來自亞洲的外國投資者重新關注美國市場。投資人將積極利用更有利的匯率條件,尋找位於 Sunbelt 地區、現金流穩定的成熟資產。
即使在景氣下行時,BTR 市場依然展現韌性,受惠於穩定的郊區租戶群與較低的租戶流動率。過往表現也為其抗跌特性提供佐證,例如2008年金融危機期間,SFR 租金仍維持穩定,顯示其在住宅房地產中具備良好的防禦性角色。
關稅上升對美國經濟與住房市場的影響
美國的有效關稅稅率近期因政策快速轉變而上升至10%至15%,遠高於先前的2%,但仍低於當初「自由日」所預期的25%。關稅政策已成為當前市場不確定性的主要來源之一。若企業將成本完全轉嫁給消費者,可能導致消費者物價指數(CPI)上升1%至2%,短期內侵蝕實質薪資、抑制需求。在這樣的背景下,若貿易戰持續未解,預計企業將放緩投資計畫,消費者支出也可能在2025年剩餘時間內明顯收縮。
展望未來,對住宅市場的影響將體現在兩個面向:首先,按揭利率有望在2026年初降至5%以下,將有助於釋放被壓抑的購屋需求,特別是在供給不足的市場區段;其次,景氣放緩帶來的降息循環,通常會提升機構投資者對住宅資產的配置興趣,視其為具防禦性的資產類別。綜合來看,在供需失衡尚未緩解的情況下,這些趨勢將進一步支持我們持續聚焦於自建租賃(BTR)策略的方向。
建築成本上升: 關稅預計將使每戶住宅的建造成本增加約1萬美元,進一步壓縮建商在原已面臨購屋可負擔性挑戰下的利潤空間——雖具挑戰,但仍在可控範圍之內。
成本控制改善: 隨著新建工程開工速度放緩,我們在與分包商與供應商的議價能力提升,有助於部分抵消近期的成本壓力。
務實定位: 儘管我們對保護主義持審慎看法,但我們仍專注於研判可能的發展情境與財務影響,並以有紀律的成本管理作為因應原則。
摘要
“我們相信,具備遠見、資源與信念的投資人,將最有機會把握這個領域中的長期成長與實質回報。我們也期待在自建租賃BTR市場持續擴大橋塔的版圖,與各位一同前行。”
– 黃俊逸博士
管理合夥人
投資人展望
我們的前瞻性佈局旨在掌握長期住房需求所帶來的機會
市場動態
即使資本市場環境收緊,成長走廊中的獨棟租賃住宅需求仍然強勁
________
我們很高興與您分享一項全新的投資機會——透過 BT Select Fund VI 與我們並肩投資,把握機構投資者對自建租賃住宅不斷攀升的需求。
優先股份:預期年報酬 10%,無利潤分成,適合追求穩定現金流的投資人。
普通股份:提供每年 7% 的股息,並享有利潤分配 (70/30) ,適合同時尋求收益與增值潛力的投資人。
指標(12 個月展望)
橋塔預測 – 基本情景
原因說明
30 年期固定房貸利率
年中高點接近 7%,第 4 季逐步下滑至約 6%
聯準會寬鬆政策 + 可能重啟量化寬鬆(QE)
全國房價指數
預估變動 0 – 3%
房市供給緊縮,有助抵消買氣疲弱的影響
獨棟租賃SFR/自建租賃BTR
租金成長率
成長約 2 – 4%
雖家庭組成放緩,但在高購屋成本環境下,租賃需求仍穩定
獨棟租賃SFR/自建租賃BTR
產業健康度
預期表現優於其他類別
該產業基本面預期將於 2026/2027 年進一步增強
穿越波動,穩健前行
隨著人口與家庭數持續成長,機構投資者日益將自建租賃(BTR)視為一種更適合家庭、且可規模化的住宅投資選擇,相較於傳統多戶型住宅(Multifamily)更具吸引力。與功能有限、過度強調公共設施的公寓不同,BTR 社區提供現代租戶所追求的空間感、隱私與居住品質。這樣的市場趨勢也讓我們更加堅信,橋塔精心打造的 BTR 資產,具備穩健而持久的價值。
因著我們對美國房地產市場的正向展望,以及對自建租賃(BTR)長期潛力的信心,我們很高興推出一項全新的投資機會 – BT Select Fund VI 橋塔美國基金第六期。此基金旨在因應市場對 BTR 住宅日益增長的機構投資者需求,採多元化投資策略,將資金部署於德州及其他高成長地區的多個 BTR 項目,讓投資人能同時參與更廣泛的資產組合,並分散單一項目的風險、把握產業長期成長的潛力。
為因應不同投資目標,我們提供兩種股份類型:
- 優先股份:預期年報酬 10%,無利潤分成,適合追求穩定現金流的投資人;
- 普通股份:提供每年 7% 的股息,並享有利潤分配 (70/30) ,適合同時尋求收益與增值潛力的投資人。
我們相信,具備遠見、資源與信念的投資人,將最有機會把握這個領域中的長期成長與實質回報。我們也期待在自建租賃BTR市場持續擴大橋塔的版圖,與各位一同前行。
聯絡我們
若您有意與橋塔合作投資,或認識其他合資格投資人希望了解更多相關機會,歡迎透過 partners@bridgetowergp.com 與我們聯繫,我們將提供更多資訊。
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